Markets say Nvidia matters more than inflation - Nomura

Wall Street is largely ignoring this week’s CPI and PPI releases, even though hotter inflation could revive concerns that the Fed can’t ease. According to Nomura, options positioning suggests traders are more focused on month-end risks, especially Nvidia’s August 26 earnings and the Jackson Hole symposium, rather than inflation. The broader setup in the S&P 500 looks stretched: call skew is elevated, put protection is cheap, and dealers are heavily short calls above 7,900, which could amplify a breakout higher. At the same time, systematic funds may start selling if the market falls about 4% from current levels. For Nvidia, the options market is pricing a large earnings reaction, with an implied move of about 7.8% in either direction and heavy open interest clustered around the 210-225 strikes, signaling potentially elevated volatility around the report.