Market outlook for the week of April 27th - May 1st

A busy FX week (Apr 27–May 1) features major central bank meetings—BoJ, BoC, FOMC, BoE and ECB—plus key U.S. data (advance Q1 GDP, core PCE) and national inflation prints (Australia, Tokyo). The BoJ may tighten further but is likely to pause in April while retaining a hawkish tone; analysts (Wells Fargo) project hikes into June and later, potentially lifting rates to ~1.25% if the yen stays weak. Australia’s CPI is expected hotter (m/m 1.3%, y/y 4.8%), supporting further Australian price pressures. BoC, ECB and BoE are broadly expected to hold rates, with markets watching energy-driven headline inflation and wage dynamics. U.S. Q1 GDP is forecast stronger (2.2% vs 0.5% prior) while core PCE is seen easing slightly (0.3% m/m). Net market implication: heightened sensitivity to central bank language, energy and currency moves—key for USDJPY as yen weakness and energy-driven inflation could prompt further tightening bets or volatility around policy outcomes.