Major Japanese trading houses expect higher profits as Iran war drags on

Major Japanese trading houses said they expect higher fiscal-year profits as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran keeps commodity prices elevated. Marubeni forecast a record net profit of ¥580 billion (up 6.6% y/y), Mitsui forecast ¥920 billion (up 10%), and Sumitomo and Itochu expect mid-single-digit profit rises. By contrast, regional utilities warned of profit declines as LNG procurement costs — often linked to oil — rise, with six of ten forecasting weaker results. The conflict is pushing energy and FX volatility (notably USD/JPY) and prompting Japanese policy measures (subsidies, potential currency intervention) to cushion the shock. Market impact: commodity-linked trading houses and energy exporters stand to gain, utilities and power generators face margin pressure, and heightened oil and gas risk could keep energy and JPY volatility elevated.