Macquarie sees budget tax changes as headwind for Australian banks

Macquarie warned that proposed Federal budget changes to capital gains tax and limits on negative gearing are a headwind for Australian banks and the housing market. In a research note the firm kept Underperform ratings on major lenders and said tax shifts, combined with further RBA rate hikes, should prolong the slowdown in home prices. Macquarie estimates a cut to the 50% CGT discount could knock 1–2% off house prices, with additional downside if negative gearing is limited. While direct equity effects are modest, indirect impacts via property and mortgage exposure raise downside risk for bank earnings and valuations.