Legendary investor who made an estimated $100 million on 1987 crash says investors could see 'negative 10-year returns'

Paul Tudor Jones warns that current U.S. equity valuations make it difficult for investors to earn positive returns over the next decade. He argues the total U.S. stock market is at about 252% of GDP and the S&P 500’s PE of ~22 has historically implied negative 10-year forward returns. Jones cautions a large correction (he cites a 35% drop scenario) would not only shrink portfolios but could cut capital-gains tax revenue, widen the federal deficit and trigger stress in the bond and credit markets. He suggests positioning adjustments rather than blanket selling, recommending geographic diversification (VEA, EEM) and hedges such as gold and Bitcoin; his fund increased exposure to the SPDR Gold ETF by ~49%. The piece highlights structural risks from shrinking buybacks and incoming IPO supply, which could weaken demand for shares and amplify downside risk for U.S. equities.