Kazakhstan Weighs New Routes as Drone Strikes Squeeze Black Sea Oil Exports

Kazakhstan is exploring alternative crude export routes after repeated Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted shipments through Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). The country is considering using the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, Caspian Sea shipments via Azerbaijan, and the Baku-Supsa route, while also increasing eastbound flows to China. The disruption is material because July CPC flows were suspended multiple times, and a recent week-long shutdown temporarily removed more than 1 million bpd of Kazakh production from the market. The article highlights growing supply risk in global oil markets as Black Sea and Middle East shipping routes remain under pressure. For energy markets, the story is bullish for crude prices near-term due to tighter supply expectations and heightened geopolitical/logistics risk.