June CPI Set to Show US Inflation Cooled as Fuel Prices Fell

The article previews the June US CPI report, expected to show inflation cooled as lower fuel prices fed through to consumers. Headline CPI is forecast to slow to 3.8% year over year from 4.2% in May, with monthly CPI at -0.1%; core CPI is expected to remain steady at 2.9% y/y and 0.2% m/m. While softer inflation could initially weigh on the US dollar and support EUR/USD, the market may not treat one benign print as enough to change the broader policy outlook. Traders still see a meaningful chance of a July Fed hike and at least one rate increase by year-end. The piece also notes that renewed oil-price volatility and AI-related cost pressures could keep inflation sticky, limiting any lasting bullish reaction in EUR/USD.