June CPI Beat Sparks Bitcoin Surge, but the Fed’s September Hike Looms

June CPI came in softer than expected, with headline inflation falling 0.4% month over month and annual CPI easing to 3.5% versus 3.8% forecast. Bitcoin jumped on the release as traders interpreted the data as supportive for risk assets, but the article stresses that the move is driven mainly by falling energy prices rather than broad disinflation. Core CPI held at 2.6% annualized, services ex-energy were flat, and shelter rose slightly, suggesting the Fed may still view inflation as sticky. Market pricing now expects the Fed to hold at the July FOMC meeting and then raise rates by 25 bps in September. The near-term crypto rally is therefore positive, but the article argues the macro backdrop remains cautious because higher-for-longer policy may continue if core inflation does not improve.