JPMorgan Says US Clarity Act Unlikely to Pass This Year

JPMorgan analysts now conclude the US Clarity Act faces long odds of enactment in 2026 as midterm elections compress the legislative calendar. The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 but still requires 60 Senate votes, House reconciliation, and presidential signature. Banking-sector opposition and the dispute over banning passive stablecoin yields further reduce near-term prospects. Without federal legislation, regulatory fragmentation is expected to persist, deterring institutional inflows and pushing activity offshore. Market clarity will therefore hinge more on agency actions and court rulings than Congress.