Jefferies sees a buying opportunity in this S&P 500 sector

Jefferies argues that the U.S. transport and logistics group offers a buying opportunity after a broad pullback that has not been matched by deteriorating fundamentals. The firm says earnings momentum remains strong, with “beats and raises” across most modes confirming an ongoing freight upcycle. While many stocks outside the rails have fallen 10% to 30% from intra-quarter highs, Jefferies views this as a positioning unwind in a well-owned sector rather than a fundamental break. It highlights accelerating volumes in rails, LTL carriers and brokers, along with tightening supply into Q3. The note also points to record new business wins at GXO and says concerns over nuclear verdicts and broker liability have pressured names like C.H. Robinson and RXO too sharply. Jefferies’ favored ideas include XPO, ArcBest, CSX, Canadian National, RXO and GXO, which it sees as leveraged to stronger freight trends through H2 2026 and 2027.