Japan Wholesale Inflation Surges to 4.9% on Import Spike, Boosts BOJ Hike Odds

Japan's corporate goods price index (CGPI) jumped 4.9% year-on-year in April, smashing 3.0% forecasts amid a 17.5% surge in import prices driven by oil costs, Iran conflict, and Hormuz risks—nearly doubling March's revised 2.9%. This follows March's record ¥4.7 trillion ($29.8bn) current account surplus, up 29.1% YoY on 35.9% trade gains from AI-boosted semiconductor exports and a weaker yen. The data lifts BOJ rate hike odds to 74% for June 16-17—after a 6-3 April hold at 0.75%—supporting yen strength and potential USD/JPY downside.