Is the Trump Bull Market in Its Final Act? History Offers a Decisive Answer.

The article argues that the “Trump bull market” faces significant downside risk despite recent gains. Short-term volatility from the Iran war and an equity pullback have intensified concerns, but two longer-term factors are more ominous: historical weakness in midterm election years and extremely rich market valuations. Midterm years have produced steeper peak-to-trough S&P 500 declines and the second quarter of a president’s second year has averaged negative returns. The S&P 500’s Shiller CAPE is trading near 39–41 — well above its 1871 average of 17.35 — levels historically followed by large market drawdowns. Overall, the piece is a bearish market commentary signaling elevated risk for the S&P 500.