Is GOOG Stock a Buy Ahead of Q1 Earnings and Amid Fragile Peace in the Middle East?

Alphabet (GOOG) is trading near its record highs as a tentative Middle East truce lifts sentiment, with the stock buoyed by Alphabet’s large stakes in AI players (Anthropic) and SpaceX, plus progress commercializing TPUs as an alternative to Nvidia GPUs. The firm reports Q1 2026 earnings April 29 after the close; analysts forecast $106.9B revenue ( +18.5% YoY) and a 6.4% EPS decline. Management’s big AI capex push (2026 capex revised to $175–$185B) will pressure near-term profitability and free cash flow, though EPS is expected to recover in 2026–27. The author remains long GOOG but will not add ahead of earnings, citing a forward P/E near 29x and limited margin of safety; Barchart’s consensus is “Strong Buy” with a mean target of $378.66 (~11% upside). Market impact: near-term sensitivity to the earnings print and AI capex guidance, while longer-term AI and TPU commercialization could be material upside drivers.