Is Bitcoin a Buy After Falling 40% From Its All-Time High?

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 40% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 and now trades near $77k, prompting debate over whether it’s a “buy the dip.” The piece notes Bitcoin’s history of deep cyclical drawdowns (around 64% in past cycles) and that online prediction markets assign sizable probabilities to further declines this year (e.g., ~50% to $55k, ~42% to $50k, ~32% to $45k). The author argues buying on dips has historically paid off for long-term, patient holders but warns volatility could produce another large retracement before the next bull market. Market-impact takeaway: the current pullback is meaningful and could drive short-term selling if prediction-market scenarios play out, yet long-term demand narratives and past recoveries support a cautiously bullish, buy-and-hold stance.