Iran Ceasefire Could Drop Oil 10-15%; Buffett's Chevron, Occidental Bets Stay Strong

Analysts now forecast 2026 WTI at $70–$75 absent a peace deal, up from prior $50–$60 baselines, as sustained higher prices bolster Berkshire Hathaway's energy holdings. A ceasefire with Iran would eliminate the geopolitical risk premium, potentially slashing prices 10%–15% upon announcement. Berkshire recently increased its Chevron stake by 8 million shares in Q4 2025 to 130,156,362 shares (6.6% float) and owns 264,941,431 shares of Occidental (26.6% float), plus acquired OxyChem for $9.7 billion on Jan. 2, 2026. Investors are advised to scale in gradually now but await settlement confirmation before adding more exposure.