Investors Rotate From Meta to Google Over $200B Capex Monetization Fears

As of July 8-9, Wall Street is shifting capital from Meta to Google amid doubts that Meta’s $125-145 billion 2026 AI capex will generate timely returns via its nascent Meta Compute neocloud unit. The story began June 28 when Google rationed Gemini access and its cloud backlog doubled to $462 billion. Meta responded July 1 by launching Meta Compute to sell excess capacity, lifting shares nearly 9% to $619 while sending CoreWeave and Nebius down 14-17%. Subsequent analyst notes warned of margin pressure and potential 2027 capex rising to $200 billion, triggering a selloff. Meta is now down about 10% year-to-date as capital flows favor Google Cloud’s clearer monetization path.