Intel, Micron, and Nvidia favorites as KeyBanc highlights semiconductor cycle

KeyBanc sees the semiconductor cycle strengthening, naming Nvidia (NVDA.OQ) alongside Intel (INTC.OQ) and Micron (MU.OQ) as favorite ideas. Analysts say the real cyclical recovery is still to start despite shipments beginning to track above the trendline, projecting the recovery could extend through 2027 aided by durable AI infrastructure demand. Inventories ex-AI have normalized to ~75 days, while aggregate supply-chain DOI fell to 79 days. Q4 IC unit shipments were -2.1% QoQ and +3.5% YoY, with 3MMA unit sales 1.3% above the implied trendline. KeyBanc raised its 2026 IC ex-memory revenue forecast to +22% (from +19%), citing price increases starting in Q2 — a bullish signal for semiconductor suppliers and AI-exposed names.