Institutional control of Bitcoin supply rises from 8% in 2024

Institutional entities now control over 14% of Bitcoin’s supply, up from 8% in 2024 — a structural accumulation that hasn’t yet moved short-term market pricing. Prediction-market odds for Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by Dec. 31, 2026 remain 4.9% YES, indicating little repricing on supply concentration alone. Shorter-dated All-Time-High markets show low odds (3% for June 30, 10.5% for Sept. 30), implying traders expect catalysts later in the year — likely ETF inflows or Federal Reserve policy shifts. Markets are thin: only $1,589 of order flow can move the prediction-market price by five points, so liquidity risk is high. Overall, the data points to growing institutional ownership but limited near-term market impact until macro or regulatory catalysts arrive.