ING Warns CEE Currencies Face Sustained Pressure as PLN Weakens

On May 20, ING warned that Central and Eastern European currencies are under sustained pressure from negative global sentiment and risk aversion. This marks a shift from Commerzbank’s May 19 outlook, which had highlighted the Polish zloty’s resilience on improving current-account balances, stronger GDP, EU recovery funds and a hawkish NBP. ING singles out the zloty, forint and koruna, noting building short positions, a stronger US dollar, sticky inflation, fiscal uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The bank sees elevated volatility and further depreciation risks unless ECB easing or de-escalation in Ukraine improves risk appetite, raising hedging needs for USDPLN exposures.