India Gold Import Duty Hike to 15% Threatens Decade-Low Jewellery Volumes in FY27

Crisil now warns that India’s increase in gold import duty to 15% from 9% will cut organised jewellery volumes 13–15% to 620–640 tonnes in FY27, marking a decade low. The move follows a 36% surge in gold prices that fuelled a 50% jump in gold loans to ₹19 lakh crore by March 2026 and lifted overall retail lending 17% to ₹170 lakh crore. Higher domestic prices near ₹160,000/10g are pushing consumers toward coins, bars and lighter jewellery, squeezing retailer margins even as realisations rise 35–40% and absolute EBITDA climbs about 20%.