If the S&P 500's Pullback Turns Into a Full-Fledged Bear Market, It Would Be Statistically Unique, According to 76 Years of Data

The article argues that while recent geopolitical shocks (Iran war) and rising oil prices have intensified the S&P 500’s pullback, historical data make a full 20% bear market unlikely. It highlights the Fed as the principal potential catalyst—higher inflation from supply disruptions could force a pause or reversal of rate cuts and hurt a richly valued market. Key datapoints: Fed cut rates six times since Sept. 2024; Cleveland Fed nowcast suggests 12-month inflation may jump by 85 basis points to 3.25% in March; historical S&P bear markets’ initial 5% drops averaged 14.5 trading days, whereas the current drawdown took 35 days (no prior bear took longer than 24 days). The piece is cautionary but concludes, on historical precedent, that the current pullback is unlikely to become a full-fledged bear market.