IEA Warns US-Iran Escalation Threatens 2027 Oil Surplus; Brent Nears $77

Oil prices reversed higher after the US revoked Iran's sanctions waiver and struck targets following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had fallen toward pre-conflict levels near $68-72/bbl as OPEC+ raised August quotas by 188,000 bpd for a fifth straight month and Hormuz traffic normalized. The July 7 policy reversal immediately lifted WTI more than 3% and Brent toward $76, reintroducing supply-risk premium even as the EIA raised its 2026-27 production forecasts. On July 8, President Trump declared the Iran deal “over,” sending futures higher and equities lower. The IEA now cautions that renewed hostilities could eliminate its projected 2027 market surplus.