IEA Warns Global Diesel Shortages and High Prices Will Persist Until Mid-2027

Global diesel supplies face an enduring deficit projected to persist until mid-2027 as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine disrupt refinery infrastructure. The International Energy Agency downgraded its 2026 global oil demand outlook to a decline of 2.6 million barrels per day, with diesel driving 25% of the contraction. Despite September global crude production rising by 2.5 million bpd to 102.3 million bpd, global supply is projected to contract by 5.8 million bpd in 2026, leaving a 1.73 million bpd deficit. Wholesale diesel prices reached records near $220 per barrel in the U.S. and Europe, while refining margins reached nearly $95 per barrel.