How much market pain would trigger the “Trump put”?

Capital Economics says markets are under pressure — bond yields have risen and equities are wobbling — but the so‑called “Trump put” (expectation of policy intervention after a sharp sell‑off) is still unlikely to be triggered without a significantly larger market drop. The firm notes the 30‑year U.S. Treasury yield is at its highest since 2007, yet yields have not spiked as fast as during last spring’s stress. Swap spreads, the dollar and option‑implied volatility remain far from last April’s panic levels, and the S&P 500 is close to its all‑time highs rather than suffering the ~20% drawdown that previously prompted a policy response. Capital Economics concludes a bigger equity sell‑off would be needed to activate a market‑support response, while the belief that a Trump retreat would follow a sharp sell‑off may be muting investor concern.