Hormuz Flows Top 10M bbl/day but 58M Iranian Barrels Stuck at Sea

Oil prices have slipped to four-month lows as commercial flows through the Strait of Hormuz rebounded above 10 million barrels per day following the U.S.-Iran Doha talks. After an initial spike in risk premiums from renewed maritime incidents, tanker traffic recovered faster than expected, releasing over 20 million barrels in a single day and flipping the prompt curve into contango. Asian demand slowed while Saudi Arabia prepared steep August OSP cuts of $6.50-$8.00; Morgan Stanley cut its Q4 Brent forecast to $75. Despite the progress, 58 million Iranian barrels remain in floating storage and throughput is still below pre-war levels.