Hormuz Closure Traps 10M Bpd, Bakes In 1 Billion Barrels Oil Loss

Two months after February 28 strikes closed the Strait of Hormuz, over 10 million barrels per day of Middle East crude remain shut in, with 600-700 million barrels lost so far and roughly 1 billion barrels of total loss now baked in. Global spare capacity is trapped behind the chokepoint, lacking substitutes and fueling sustained oil price gains amid heightened volatility. Recovery lags: Iraq needs up to nine months for full production restart, while the IEA projects two months post-reopening for steady—but sub-pre-conflict—exports, prolonging supply tightness and recession risks.