Here’s When ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ Actually Makes Sense

Barron’s examines the old “sell in May and go away” adage and finds little empirical support for U.S. equities. LPL Financial data show May has averaged just a 0.4% S&P 500 return since 1950 and has finished higher 62% of the time, while Deutsche Bank backtests (since 1973) find sell-in-May underperforms buy-and-hold in the U.S. Investing in Treasuries can improve results but is highly timing-dependent; excluding a few outlier years weakens the strategy further. The piece warns that following the rule could cause investors to miss strong summer gains (U.S. equities rose 14% May–Sept 2025 vs. Treasuries’ 3%) and notes seasonally higher volatility from July–October. Overall, the takeaway favors fundamentals and time in market over seasonal timing.