Here are the odds of bear markets in each stock index this summer

The article analyzes how severe summer selloffs could become for major U.S. stock indexes, using options pricing to estimate the probability of each index falling into a technical bear market. For the S&P 500, a 20% decline from its closing high of 7,610 would put the index at 6,088, with puts implying a 10.5% chance of closing there by Aug. 31 and about a 21% chance of touching that level. The Nasdaq 100 shows a much higher 32% probability, reflecting its elevated volatility and concentrated pressure in big tech and AI winners. The Russell 2000 sits in between, with a 24% chance of a 20% drop. Overall, the piece highlights that the tech-heavy Nasdaq is most vulnerable, while the S&P 500 looks comparatively more stable, though broad market weakness and volatility remain elevated.