Hayes Slashes Bitcoin Target to $125K from $500K on Liquidity Focus

Arthur Hayes has revised his 2026 Bitcoin forecast downward to $125,000 after initially projecting $500,000, stressing that liquidity—not technology—drives BTC prices. The story began April 27 with a $125K year-end call when BTC traded near $77K, citing $4T credit creation from ESLR changes. By mid-May, Hayes refined targets to $126K, identifying $90K as a breakout trigger and linking gains to AI capex plus February's U.S.-Iran conflict liquidity surge, while raising Maelstrom risk to maximum. Recent hotter CPI data and an 'AI panic' have pressured prices near $78K, prompting the tempered outlook.