Hawkish Warsh Fed Nomination Looms as Bigger S&P 500 Threat Than Tariffs at 7,165

S&P 500 trades at 7,165.08 (+0.80%) as analysts flag the Federal Reserve chair transition on May 15, 2026, as the paramount risk to the Trump bull market over tariffs. Jerome Powell's exit paves the way for Kevin Warsh, whose hawkish history and balance-sheet reduction push could hike bond yields, curbing rate cuts amid 3.3% March TTM inflation (2.4% Feb; 3.58% April forecast) and a $6.7 trillion Fed balance sheet. Despite +70% first-term and +19% second-term gains fueled by AI and buybacks, elevated valuations face policy tightening headwinds.