Guyana Eyes $4.3B Oil Windfall as Crude Hits $120/bbl After Iran War

Guyana stands to reap major fiscal gains from oil prices that have surged roughly 30% since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began in late February. With Exxon-led offshore output now exceeding 900,000 barrels per day, Reuters projects 2026 receipts could reach $4.3 billion at $100/bbl, a 67% year-on-year jump. The Liza benchmark has climbed to about $120/bbl from $68.98 on Feb. 27, and Guyana’s profit-oil share is poised to rise from 12.5% to 50% once consortium costs are recovered. GDP has already quadrupled to $27.5 billion between 2019 and 2024 on the back of rapid production growth. Offsetting pressures include higher import costs, infrastructure strains, and concentration risk, leaving a mixed outlook for the broader economy.