Goldman Sachs note hints China's real gold accumulation may be much more than double official numbers

Goldman Sachs says China’s true gold buying may be far larger than official reserve data suggests, estimating May purchases of more than 48 tonnes via the London OTC market versus 10 tonnes reported by the PBOC. The bank argues that elevated central bank accumulation, led heavily by China, is creating a durable price floor for gold even as hawkish Fed pricing weighs on the metal near term. Goldman also notes China’s official June purchase of 15 tonnes, its largest monthly addition in at least 2.5 years and the 20th straight month of reserve growth. The broader implication is continued structural demand from central banks as they diversify away from dollar assets, supporting Goldman’s bullish medium-term outlook and its $4,900/oz end-2026 forecast. Private investor demand is still low, leaving room for further upside if geopolitical risks intensify.