Goldman looks at the impact of the AI capex boom on S&P 500 return on equity

Goldman Sachs says the AI capex boom is increasingly a double-edged sword for the S&P 500. While record corporate profitability and stronger earnings expectations have helped lift the index 9% year to date and push forward P/E to 21x, the bank warns that heavy AI infrastructure spending could pressure mega-cap tech returns. The S&P 500’s ROE reached a record 22% in Q1 2026, but the biggest tech firms now face rising depreciation, greater reliance on financing, and an expected 7-point average ROE decline next year as data-center and computing investments accelerate. Goldman still sees a positive long-term AI thesis, arguing productivity gains may eventually lift margins across industries, and notes semiconductors remain key beneficiaries. The message for markets is near-term margin/ROE compression risk for AI leaders, even as broader index profitability remains strong.