Goldman: Global Economy 'Bending, Not Breaking' Despite Prolonged Iran Oil Disruptions

Goldman Sachs asserts the global economy is 'bending, not breaking' amid extended Iran war disruptions to Strait of Hormuz flows, buoyed by high inventories, demand destruction, AI productivity, and fiscal support. The crisis erupted mid-March 2026, halting ~10M bpd (20% global oil/gas trade) and surging Brent 50% to $100-103/bbl. An April ceasefire eased Q2 forecasts to $90 Brent/$87 WTI, but May brought volatility with daily swings, a Goldman poll showing 40% expect constraints past July, IMF adopting $125/bbl baseline into 2027, and Fed warnings of inflationary shocks.