Gold vs. platinum: Which metal should investors own in Q4?

UBS has advised clients that it prefers holding gold over platinum heading into the fourth quarter, citing deteriorating fundamentals and persistent market oversupply for the white metal. According to UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo, weak jewelry and investment demand suggest the platinum market will remain in surplus throughout the year, making gold the superior precious metal exposure. Data from the World Platinum Investment Council revealed a second-quarter surplus of 244,000 ounces, accounting for roughly 15% of global demand, while the first-quarter surplus was revised upward to 304,000 ounces. Consequently, the Council now projects a full-year surplus of 265,000 ounces, reversing earlier deficit expectations due to recovering mine supply across South Africa and Zimbabwe alongside rising scrap volumes. Industrial demand has simultaneously faced headwinds from rising electric vehicle adoption reducing autocatalyst demand, while platinum regaining a premium over palladium may trigger carmaker substitution back to palladium. Although gold's strength has provided correlated support, UBS forecasts modest near-term downside for platinum followed by sideways consolidation over the next 12 months.