Gold resilient but vulnerable as oil prices drive inflation fears

TD Securities' Bart Melek says gold has shown near-term resilience, trading above its 200-day moving average, but remains vulnerable to rising oil-driven inflation fears that could keep policy hawkish and weigh on demand. Spot gold was around $4,619.90/oz (up 1.6% on the day) and the 200-day MA sits near $4,258/oz; Melek warns an oil spike to $150/b could knock gold back toward that moving average. Despite short-term risks, TD maintains a bullish long-term outlook, forecasting year-end prices above $5,000 and expecting a move toward ~$5,200 once inflation and energy markets stabilize. He flags similar downside risks for silver if higher oil and inflation hurt industrial demand.