Gold price not likely to reach $5,200/oz target without stronger ETF inflows, Morgan Stanley says

Morgan Stanley said gold may struggle to reach its bullish $5,200/oz target in the second half of the year unless ETF inflows recover meaningfully. The bank argued that while central bank buying could continue, ETF demand is a key driver for further upside and is more sensitive to shifts in Fed rate expectations, real yields, and the U.S. dollar. The article also notes that Bank of America’s even more aggressive $6,000/oz target looks unlikely in the near term because rate cuts/hikes are not fully priced in and current macro conditions do not justify such levels. Overall, the piece remains constructive on gold long term due to persistent U.S. fiscal deficits and funding needs, but near-term upside appears constrained without stronger investor flows.