Gold holds in tight range as Iran tensions and mixed Fed signals curb upside

Gold (XAU/USD) trades in a tight range above $4,600 as mixed macro and geopolitical forces cap upside. Geopolitical tensions with Iran have supported safe-haven demand for the US dollar, while the Fed’s hawkish bias and stronger-than-expected US inflation (PCE) and GDP data reinforce USD strength and act as a headwind for non-yielding gold. Market-implied odds of a 25bp Fed cut in 2026 rose modestly, limiting aggressive USD positioning and helping to cap gold losses. Technicals show tentative bullish momentum: intraday short-covering lifted price toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,651, but RSI and MACD are not strongly bullish. A sustained break above $4,651 would open the $4,696 50% retracement; on the downside, a breach of the 100‑hour SMA (~$4,623.78) would expose $4,595 and then the swing low near $4,505. Overall, the outlook is mixed — supportive geopolitical/softening-cut bets versus Fed-driven dollar resilience.