Global Oil Market Faces Growing Surplus as Rebounding Supply Outpaces Slackening Demand

Global crude markets are showing rising signs of oversupply as recovering Middle Eastern output coincides with weakening demand and falling regional spot premiums. Middle East crude premiums collapsed to pre-war levels, with Dubai cash premiums sliding from October averages near $8 a barrel to 65 cents before recovering to $1.55. JP Morgan estimates the global oil market surplus widened to 1.4 million barrels per day in October from 1.1 million bpd in September. Concurrently, Gulf crude and condensate exports recovered to 14 million bpd, reaching 86% of pre-war levels, while short-term Brent contracts flipped into contango.