German ZEW, UK Labour Market, and US Retail Sales on the Agenda

Danske Bank previews key data and events likely to influence European and global risk sentiment today, with the German ZEW survey (expectations may rebound) singled out as a potential driver for Germany 40. UK labour-market details and US March retail sales — the first major consumer data since the Iran war — could sway risk assets and FX. Geopolitical developments around a possible US–Iran ceasefire and oil price swings are underpinning cautious market moves: global equities were slightly lower (S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq -0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.5%), while EUR/USD held around 1.18 and USD/JPY traded near 159. Central bank positioning remains key: the ECB is seen unlikely to move on 30 April, BoJ hikes are pushed to June, and the BoE is expected to stay on hold. Overall, the note flags mixed near-term drivers for Germany 40 and broader markets — geopolitical risk and energy prices creating potential downside, while data-dependent central bank bets keep volatility contained.