Gas Prices Surge to $4.39/Gal on Iran War, Squeezing Consumer Wallets and Retail Stocks

Rising oil-driven gasoline prices have reached a U.S. average of $4.39 per gallon as of May 1 (AAA), up from $4.06 a month earlier and $3.19 a year ago, attributed to tensions from the Iran war. This is weighing on consumer discretionary spending, with Chipotle reporting Q1 comps of +0.5% (traffic +0.6ppt) but expecting flat comps for the year amid lower traffic and spend, shares down 34.5% Y/Y; Home Depot posted fiscal-2025 comps of +0.3% with flat-to-2% guidance as homeowners delay projects, shares off 9.6% Y/Y. Softer valuations (Chipotle P/E ~30; Home Depot P/E ~23) signal long-term opportunities, bullish for WLDOIL but a near-term headwind for consumer stocks.