Gary Black Warns Tesla Risks Falling Behind in the Self-Driving Race: ‘Unsupervised Autonomy Is Becoming Table Stakes’

Gary Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, has issued a warning regarding Tesla Inc.'s competitive standing in the autonomous vehicle race, arguing that unsupervised autonomy has become 'table stakes' in the global automotive market. Black highlighted that competitors, including Alphabet's Waymo, Amazon's Zoox, Baidu's Apollo Go, and WeRide, are heavily investing and already logging over one million paid unsupervised autonomous rides each week, potentially leaving Tesla behind. Black underscored that negative earnings revisions have significantly impacted Tesla's share price performance year-to-date. Wall Street consensus earnings estimates for Tesla continue to deteriorate across multiple forecast horizons. Specifically, consensus estimates for 2028 have dropped to $3.14 per share, marking a 5% decline over the past month, a 15% reduction over six months, and a 28% drop over the trailing twelve months. While investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki expressed enthusiasm for the upcoming Cybercab unveiling in Austin, Texas, he previously voiced skepticism about Tesla's ability to scale robotaxi operations in time to outpace established autonomous competitors.