Gary Black Questions Tesla-SpaceX Merger Hype: Why Would SpaceX Investors Other Than Elon Musk Accept Dilution?

Investor Gary Black pushed back on talk of a Tesla–SpaceX tie-up, warning the merger narrative (often framed as “AI synergy”) could destroy shareholder value by creating a conglomerate discount. Black argues the market would likely value the combined company at the lower of the two multiples, using an example where two $1.5T companies could end up trading at about $2.25T combined — implying a 20%–25% hit to Tesla shareholders. He also flagged SpaceX’s uncertain cash flows and noted an anticipated SpaceX IPO (reported for June) that could already reprice the company. The commentary raises merger-risk downside for TSLA shares and highlights investor skepticism that could pressure the stock if merger speculation intensifies.