Galaxy: MicroStrategy on Pace to Top Satoshi's BTC by 2026, Polymarket Sees Low $200K Odds

Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn projects MicroStrategy, with 815,061 BTC holdings after a 34,164 BTC ($2.54B) mid-April buy, could surpass Satoshi Nakamoto's ~1.096M BTC by November 2026 at its 1,765 BTC daily pace—now topping BlackRock's IBIT (806,178 BTC) and controlling ~4% of supply. Initial estimates pegged holdings at ~760K BTC with 80K added YTD, highlighting tightening float for bullish scarcity amid MSTR stock's 49% drop to $175.26. Latest analysis notes Polymarket's 99.9% odds for Bitcoin over $68,000 on April 26 but just 4.9% for $200,000 by Dec. 2026, with thin $505/day liquidity signaling volatility to headlines.