Fund Managers Are the Most Bearish in Nearly a Year. Why That Could Be Bullish.

Bank of America’s April fund-manager survey shows the most pessimistic positioning since mid-2025, with growth expectations sliding sharply and inflation worries near multi-year highs. Despite the bearish stance, BofA frames this as a contrarian positive for risk assets if macro risks fade — notably if a U.S.-Iran cease-fire holds and oil falls from about $95 to below $84. The S&P 500 is already up over 6% in April and nearing record highs, while the Nasdaq (tech-heavy) has jumped ~8.5% this month on a 10-session win streak. Most managers (70%) don’t expect a recession and favor a soft landing, tilting allocations toward consumer discretionary, bonds and REITs; they caution that oil and semiconductors are crowded trades. Market impact: if oil eases and inflation recedes, expectations for rate cuts could fuel further equity gains, with lagging sectors (consumer names, REITs) positioned to lead, while energy and chip names may face mean reversion after strong rallies.