From war shock to fragile recovery: Why investors are still nervous?

Global markets are stabilizing after intense volatility sparked by the 2026 Iran conflict and Operation Epic Fury, but investor nerves remain due to lingering geopolitical and energy-supply risks. Brent crude saw the biggest shock—surging roughly 64% from about $73.50 to $120 on fears around the Strait of Hormuz—while the IEA and EIA warn of prolonged supply pressure and the EIA forecasts Brent near $115 in Q2 2026. Gold displayed atypical volatility (an initial ~25% drop before rebounding above $4,800) as liquidity flows hit the US dollar, which strengthened during the peak risk phase and later retreated toward pre-war levels. Bitcoin recovered and rose about 18% by late April. Analysts say the market’s path depends on whether the ceasefire holds and on higher shipping/insurance costs keeping oil structurally pricier.