Forex Today: Deal / Extension Expected, but Ceasefire Expires Today - 21 April 2026

Markets are braced for volatility as a two‑week ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran expires on April 21, 2026. The article outlines scenarios ranging from a peace deal (bullish for stocks, bearish for crude and the USD) to a resumption of war (risk‑off, higher Brent crude and a stronger USD). Risk assets (S&P 500, NASDAQ 100) rallied into the week but face downside if talks fail. Precious metals (gold, silver) are cooling after a weak bullish phase, while Bitcoin is consolidating after a failed breakout above $75,000. In FX, NZD has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open — supported by NZ Q1 CPI surprising on the upside (+0.9% q/q) — while AUD is the weakest. USD/JPY is holding support below ¥158. Overall the piece is cautious: geopolitical risk could quickly flip markets risk‑on/off and lift crude and the dollar, while supportive NZ data keeps the Kiwi firm.