Forex Seasonality – August 2026: GBP/USD's Most Bearish Month

This article is a seasonal FX outlook for August 2026, highlighting historical monthly patterns rather than a fresh macro catalyst. The main takeaway is that GBP/USD has historically posted its weakest average August performance since 1971, with average returns near -0.5%, implying seasonal downside risk for sterling versus the dollar. The piece also notes mixed-to-bearish seasonal tendencies in EUR/USD and USD/JPY, while AUD/USD historically underperforms in August and could form a long-term head-and-shoulders topping setup if it weakens further. USD/CAD is seasonally slightly positive, though USMCA review risks could create volatility. Overall, the article suggests seasonal bias favors a softer GBP/USD in August, but stresses that seasonality alone is not a trading signal and should be combined with technical and fundamental analysis.