FOMC minutes today, April PCE ahead: a critical two-week calendar

Kraken’s brief outlines a 14-day market risk window centered on Fed, macro, and corporate catalysts. Today’s April FOMC minutes (May 20) will be parsed as the last full record before Kevin Warsh’s tenure and could reshape rate expectations. April PCE and the Q1 GDP second estimate arrive together on May 28, with core PCE’s path particularly important ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting (June 16–17). Nvidia reports Q1 FY2027 after the close on May 20; Q1 revenue guidance is $78.0B ±2%, but Q2 guidance (consensus ~$86B) is the key market-moving metric and could sway equity risk appetite. Crypto-specific events include BTC and ETH monthly options expiry on May 29, which can concentrate positioning around strikes. Traders should frame positioning around inflation/labor prints and Nvidia guidance, as outcomes will influence rate-sensitive assets and broader risk sentiment.