Fed's Williams Sees Oil Prices Peaking, Easing Despite Iran Conflict

On July 9, New York Fed President John Williams stated oil prices are near a peak and should decline over the next 6-12 months, viewing this as a reasonable baseline even amid renewed Middle East tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. This follows ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel's July 7 warning that falling crude alone will not end the inflation fight, citing gas prices still 40% above pre-war levels and elevated refining margins. On July 8, ECB policymaker José Luis Escrivá signaled meeting-by-meeting decisions after the US-Iran deal triggered sharp oil drops, with markets now pricing 40 bps of ECB tightening by year-end.